South Korea sees signs North is restoring part of missile launch site

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RiffRaff
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Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:09 am

CreepyMonkey wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:50 am
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:58 pm
Travis The Dragon wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:25 pm
Haven't some members on here said that NK doesn't need to do anymore test launches? I wonder what this is all about.
Some believe that their weapon programme is advanced enough that they can do the rest using computer simulation.
If their next launch is not a satellite and is, as feared, a missile "test" it can only be one thing; a message to the US and to their South Korean bretheren. After the badly failed talks in Viet Nam, I can only imagine the message intended is, simply put, "stop with the sanctions or I'm going to make you sorry."
The difference between an orbital rocket launch and an ICBM launch is minimal, especially if you're only after telemetry data. It's fairly easy to disguise an ICBM test as a satellite launch.
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CreepyMonkey
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Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:19 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:09 am
CreepyMonkey wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:50 am
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:58 pm


Some believe that their weapon programme is advanced enough that they can do the rest using computer simulation.
If their next launch is not a satellite and is, as feared, a missile "test" it can only be one thing; a message to the US and to their South Korean bretheren. After the badly failed talks in Viet Nam, I can only imagine the message intended is, simply put, "stop with the sanctions or I'm going to make you sorry."
The difference between an orbital rocket launch and an ICBM launch is minimal, especially if you're only after telemetry data. It's fairly easy to disguise an ICBM test as a satellite launch.
Perfectly stated and the real conundrum; at what point do you just assume it's actually an ICBM and treat the threat accordingly. Everyone knows that NK doesn't need to do more physical testing so any launch of an ICBM can only be interpreted as a hostile act. This launch is reckless and rife with the possibility of misinterpretation. I think this reaction to the failed talks is indicative of Kim Jong-un's youth and inexperience as a leader. This kind of reckless behavior has the distinct possibility of getting him exactly what I think he doesn't want; a war and the end of his family's rule over NK.

Porsche
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Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:08 pm

CreepyMonkey wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:50 am
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:58 pm
Travis The Dragon wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:25 pm
Haven't some members on here said that NK doesn't need to do anymore test launches? I wonder what this is all about.
Some believe that their weapon programme is advanced enough that they can do the rest using computer simulation.
If their next launch is not a satellite and is, as feared, a missile "test" it can only be one thing; a message to the US and to their South Korean bretheren. After the badly failed talks in Viet Nam, I can only imagine the message intended is, simply put, "stop with the sanctions or I'm going to make you sorry."
I dont think the talks failed so much as an agreement simply wasnt reached. I think both countries are smart enough to withhold nuclear strikes against one another

CreepyMonkey
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Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:49 am

Porsche wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:08 pm
I dont think the talks failed so much as an agreement simply wasnt reached. I think both countries are smart enough to withhold nuclear strikes against one another
Please clarify the difference between "an agreement simply wasnt reached" and failure? In my definition, if an agreement wasn't reached and everyone walked away from the table abruptly and with quite obvious unhappiness, that constitutes failure.

From CBS News coverage of the event:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-kim- ... 019-02-28/
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un was cut short on Thursday with the two men failing to reach any agreement on how to keep pushing toward Mr. Trump's stated goal of ridding North Korea of its nuclear weapons. In spite of months of preparation following their first one-on-one discussion last year, Mr. Trump and Kim appeared to have shown up in Vietnam without a clear understanding of the other side's expectations, leaving them to cancel a planned lunch and signing ceremony and head home early.
Also, clarifying my statement, the real danger isn't that it would be a deliberate strike; the real danger is that it might go off course (relatively high probability considering the relative youth of NK ICBM program) and a history of NK picking provocative flight paths for past missile launches, like say, right over Japan. These kinds of things could be easily misinterpreted.

Any way you look at it, this is a foolish and unnecessary risk for NK to be taking. Absolutely nothing to gain from it and a lot to lose.

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Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:04 am

CreepyMonkey wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:49 am
Any way you look at it, this is a foolish and unnecessary risk for NK to be taking. Absolutely nothing to gain from it and a lot to lose.
Oh I don't know. With China helping North Korea evade sanctions and Kim truly not caring about what happens to his people, North Korea can just wait it out. Look at what is happening in the US? Already talk of accepting North Korea as a nuclear power. Long way from "no nukes, not ever".

North Korea thinks they can just wait it out. And, by the looks of things, they may be right.

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Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:03 am

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:04 am
North Korea thinks they can just wait it out. And, by the looks of things, they may be right.
You are right DEFCONWarningSystem . North Korea has waited out past punishments and sanctions for decades now. They have their nuke plants, their missiles, and their nuclear warheads. President after President and other world leaders have failed to stop North Korea from getting those things and NK knows it.

Its a done deal as far as them joining the club of countries that have nuclear weapons. There ain't nothing that is going to change that fact. Short of a nuclear armed test missile that errantly strikes another country, no other country in the world is going to go to war with North Korea.

The world had their chance to change this course and blew it. Anything now to attempt to change the status quo is a waste of time and money. North Korea has to change from within and I don't see that happening in my lifetime.
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willrod1989
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:35 am

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:04 am
CreepyMonkey wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:49 am
Any way you look at it, this is a foolish and unnecessary risk for NK to be taking. Absolutely nothing to gain from it and a lot to lose.
Oh I don't know. With China helping North Korea evade sanctions and Kim truly not caring about what happens to his people, North Korea can just wait it out. Look at what is happening in the US? Already talk of accepting North Korea as a nuclear power. Long way from "no nukes, not ever".

North Korea thinks they can just wait it out. And, by the looks of things, they may be right.
It's just a psyop- moving things around to look like they're restarting testing, just to scare the west into accepting more concessions to avoid the return to "fire and fury".

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RiffRaff
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:06 pm

willrod1989 wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:35 am
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:04 am
CreepyMonkey wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:49 am
Any way you look at it, this is a foolish and unnecessary risk for NK to be taking. Absolutely nothing to gain from it and a lot to lose.
Oh I don't know. With China helping North Korea evade sanctions and Kim truly not caring about what happens to his people, North Korea can just wait it out. Look at what is happening in the US? Already talk of accepting North Korea as a nuclear power. Long way from "no nukes, not ever".

North Korea thinks they can just wait it out. And, by the looks of things, they may be right.
It's just a psyop- moving things around to look like they're restarting testing, just to scare the west into accepting more concessions to avoid the return to "fire and fury".
Possible, but when they don't get the reaction they want the psyop will eventually morph into the real thing.
"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves." - Terminator 2: Judgment Day

krzepice1976
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Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:07 pm

Former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel has announced on Twitter that he will visit North Korea this month amid a standoff over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.
Gabriel posted in the early hours of Friday morning that he would like to get an impression of North Korea, although he did not provide any specific time frame for his visit.

The announcement came as North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui said Pyongyang is rethinking whether it will continue nuclear talks with the United States and maintain a moratorium on missile and nuclear tests
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190316 ... ction=news

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Drumboy44
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Sun Mar 17, 2019 3:01 am

North Korea Covertly Building Missiles, Nuclear Arms at Civilian Sites

https://freebeacon.com/national-securit ... ian-sites/
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