UK military chief warns global tensions ‘like those seen before First World War’

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krzepice1976
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The international security landscape is the most uncertain politically and strategically in living memory, with instability the “defining condition” and where threats to “our nation are diversifying, proliferating and intensifying very rapidly”, the head of Britain’s military has warned.

The “constant confrontation” across the world is “reminiscent of the first decade of the 20th century” of the great power competition that ended with the conflagration of the First World War, General Sir Nick Carter said in his annual lecture.

He claimed that hostile states such as Russia and China – and Iran’s “flexing of muscle” – challenged our security, stability and prosperity. But there were also the added dangers of terrorist groups such as Isis, and the “bellicose nature of populism and nationalism” that seek to exploit mass migration, which many see as an existential threat to Europe.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... ssion=true

rudemarine
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Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:36 pm

A famous Visionary who lived at that time warned that Russia would invade the west coast of the US, at the time where everyone would also be holding strange cigarette boxes up to their ears.

If that is not a dead ringer for Cell Phones I don't know what is. Cigarette boxes back then were the nice metal ones that held a few not a whole pack like today. They look just like a SMART PHONE. The good thing about his prediction is that the invasion wont get far and the Russians would be quickly drove back into the Sea. The horrible part is N.Y. takes a nuclear hit from Russia and is completely wiped out. Russia takes a beating in return and then a Christian uprising removes its insane leaders with force.

Or nothing happens lol.

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RiffRaff
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Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:04 am

rudemarine wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:36 pm
A famous Visionary who lived at that time warned that Russia would invade the west coast of the US, at the time where everyone would also be holding strange cigarette boxes up to their ears.

If that is not a dead ringer for Cell Phones I don't know what is. Cigarette boxes back then were the nice metal ones that held a few not a whole pack like today. They look just like a SMART PHONE. The good thing about his prediction is that the invasion wont get far and the Russians would be quickly drove back into the Sea. The horrible part is N.Y. takes a nuclear hit from Russia and is completely wiped out. Russia takes a beating in return and then a Christian uprising removes its insane leaders with force.

Or nothing happens lol.
My money is on the latter. Russia would be insane to attempt a land invasion of CONUS. Alaska? Yeah, maybe a little less insane. But the West coast? Not happening.

However, I agree global tensions seem pretty high right now. I can't speak as to how they compare to tensions before the outbreak of WW I. However, quoting the first paragraph of a Wikipedia article on that subject:
The causes of World War I remain controversial. World War I began in the Balkans in late July 1914 and ended in November 1918, leaving 17 million dead and 20 million wounded.

Scholars looking at the long-term seek to explain why two rival sets of powers – Germany and Austria-Hungary on the one hand, and Russia, France, and Great Britain on the other – had come into conflict by 1914. They look at such factors as political, territorial and economic conflicts, militarism, a complex web of alliances and alignments, imperialism, the growth of nationalism, and the power vacuum created by the decline of the Ottoman Empire. Other important long-term or structural factors that are often studied include unresolved territorial disputes, the perceived breakdown of the balance of power in Europe, convoluted and fragmented governance, the arms races of the previous decades, and military planning.
What do we have today, a century later?
Political, territorial and economic conflicts - South China Sea and Ukraine, and the beginning of a global movement to cease purchasing oil with US dollars. Plus you have an increasing movement against the super-rich in the US. And you have the economic woes of Greece and Italy in the EU.

A complex web of alliances and alignments - Syria?

Militarism and the resurgence of nationalism - The growth of the Chinese military and the recent elections of nationalistic leaders in various countries.

The perceived breakdown of the balance of power in Europe - Brexit plus arguments among NATO member states.

Arms race and military planning - The arms race between China, Russia, and the US over the past couple of years, plus Iran's nuclear ambitions, plus the recent noises made by Germany and Saudi Arabia to develop their own nuclear weapons programs.

It has seemed to me for the past few years that the wrong spark in the wrong region at the wrong time could ignite the beginnings of another global conflict, which has been building steadily - in my humble opinion - ever since the events of 9/11. Are we as close to the tipping point as the world was in 1914? I don't know. But it seems pretty tightly wound up to me.

Anyone else?
"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves." - Terminator 2: Judgment Day

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Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:28 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:04 am

It has seemed to me for the past few years that the wrong spark in the wrong region at the wrong time could ignite the beginnings of another global conflict, which has been building steadily - in my humble opinion - ever since the events of 9/11. Are we as close to the tipping point as the world was in 1914? I don't know. But it seems pretty tightly wound up to me.

Anyone else?
There is no doubt in my mind that global conflict of some kind is inevitable. End of the world? Doubtful. But any global conflict at this point has the potential for hundreds of millions dead; a heinous and tragically senseless outcome by any standards.

My take on world wide tensions right now is that any conflict that happens between major power nation states will happen because of resources. Bottom line is, in the 21st century, resources are going to be at the root of any major conflict no matter what the actors involved say otherwise. Other than that, my belief is that all conflicts will stay regional and any wars between major players will remain by proxy or cold war.

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Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:00 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:04 am
Russia would be insane to attempt a land invasion of CONUS. Alaska? Yeah, maybe a little less insane. But the West coast? Not happening.
There's a made-for-TV movie called, aptly, World War III, which is about a Russian invasion of Alaska.

https://www.amazon.com/World-War-III-Da ... ld+war+iii

Not the most exciting movie in the world, maybe because it's 183 minutes long. But I remember liking it. My VCR shut off before recording the last seven minutes or so, so it was years before I saw how it ended. lol

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RiffRaff
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Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:46 pm

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:00 pm
RiffRaff wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:04 am
Russia would be insane to attempt a land invasion of CONUS. Alaska? Yeah, maybe a little less insane. But the West coast? Not happening.
There's a made-for-TV movie called, aptly, World War III, which is about a Russian invasion of Alaska.

https://www.amazon.com/World-War-III-Da ... ld+war+iii

Not the most exciting movie in the world, maybe because it's 183 minutes long. But I remember liking it. My VCR shut off before recording the last seven minutes or so, so it was years before I saw how it ended. lol
Yeah, I loved that movie. I thought the ending was classy, not devolving into images of nuclear devastation, but just implying it. I also thought the defense tactics the Americans used with those tubes was fascinating. I have never forgotten that tactic. The music was amazing too.
"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves." - Terminator 2: Judgment Day

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Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:57 am

RiffRaff wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:46 pm
I also thought the defense tactics the Americans used with those tubes was fascinating. I have never forgotten that tactic.
That's actually one of the few scenes I remember from the movie. Maybe i need to buy it. It's only 13 bucks.

rudemarine
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Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:18 am

The West Coast-Alaskan invasion with a nuclear attack on NY were seen at the same time. Probably where the N.Y. attack was designed to look like a terrorist attack providing the distraction needed for a west coast invasion. Definitely not a smart move and Russia would suffer hugely for this stunt.

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