Venezuela?

Reports on current military activity
expat42451
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Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:40 am

Not having been military I dont know whether this is relevant but I stumbled across this on the USNI site

https://news.usni.org/2019/04/01/usni-n ... ril-1-2019

and it seems like there are quite a number of aircraft carriers (3) in the Western Atlantic. From the article the Ike is on a short shakedown after maintenance but the Truman and Lincoln maybe not so.

Again not having been in the navy I dont know whether this is important but for my untrained eye it seems a lot. Thought I would pass it on. Wonder if Maduro is more nervous......

Edit-I wanted to add this

https://news.yahoo.com/colombia-rejects ... 21601.html

from earlier today. Wonder if this is important- why did Russia warn Colombia ? Why now?


Regards-

DEFCONWarningSystem
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Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:12 am

expat42451 wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:40 am
why did Russia warn Colombia ? Why now?
Russia, like China, is protecting its investment, feeling that any new government not honour its debts to them.

There's an article on InfoWars that talks about China also sending some military to Venezuela. I wouldn't put it past them.

Honestly, if the US wanted to pull a Grenada, there's nothing Venezuela could do. Everyone can point to the Bay of Pigs failed invasion, but that was with the US chickening out and not getting involved. Even then, the Cubans took massive losses. If the US had stepped in, Cuba would be a democracy now.

If the US wanted to go into Venezuela, it would be a short fight, and the Russians and Chinese could do nothing about it. Seriously, what would the world do? Whine and cry and condemn the US? And?

'Course, that would give the Russians and Chinese more to worry about the US poking their nose into their own areas like Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and South China Sea. which they are already worried about.

So there's that to think about.

But the US seems content to wait. See what the new sanctions are going to do. Already Venezuala appears to be letting in the Red Cross. But the place is being described as "medieval".

There's going to come a time where the people don't have the strength to revolt. If the US is going to do something, they'd better get around to it.

expat42451
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Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:39 am

Interesting- I found this article on China landing on Margarita. I know some people with family there and may have some ground truth on this in the next day or so.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ch ... n-miltary/

What you say seems correct, neither Russia nor China to my knowledge can project power in this part of the world to any meaningful extent. Just seemed to be an interesting confluence of events. Also as I said in the original post I dont know that its normal to have that many carriers at sea in one place at one time. One wonders if the US does get involved militarily , I would guess along with Brazil and Colombia.....whether Russia and China might foment a crisis or two in other places at about the same time.

I have friends in Caracas. I dont know whats portrayed in US media but there is food in at least Caracas but very expensive. Problems paying because of lack of power and internet so when the ATM's and point of sale machines arent working, the merchants for the most part want payment in US$. No Bolivars. Yesterday my friends, living in an apartment building without roof cisterns, had domestic water for a total of 15 minutes in 24 hours. Medical services have been pretty curtailed but some basic services are still available for things like blood work. How much more I dont know but from what I am able to tell not that much more. Drugs like antibiotics, blood pressure medicine and other pharmaceuticals have been scarce to non existent for a couple of years....there are organizations here in Ecuador, Colombia and elsewhere that try to alleviate this by smuggling , what success they have I do not know. When friends visited here and went back last year they loaded up on pharmaceuticals for their family and I was told that some of them were confiscated at the border. The military seems to do a brisk business in this and a lot of other things........Prices for other things are pretty stupid....a rim for a sub compact car costs something like $200 US$ used. Spark plugs $80 for a set of 4. I am in touch with my friends several times a week so I get a view of what their life is like, college professor, wife and 2 adult sons. He still is teaching but struggling. From what I am told, you can get a whole chicken and a little bit of rice and not much else for the minimum monthly salary most people make . There are food subsidies, certain staples like cooking oil, rice, corn, beans and a few other things delivered to many families. If you look at photos of Caracas today, a modern city by most standards, its hard to believe .

I live in Ecuador so its a little more than passing interest what happens in Venezuela if for nothing more than geographical proximity, the number of refugees we have here and friends I have there. They have a small farm outside of Caracas about 4 hours, I have been really hammering them to go to the farm where they have potable water, some food and from what I am told a pretty healthy barter community in the area. They cant seem to make the transition or see the need to do so. I worry they will stay where they are until its too late, impossible to travel.


Thanks very much for sharing the perspective.
Regards

Obreid
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Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:54 am

I’ve heard similar from another Venezuelan expat.
Not so much the hunger games version but just that everything is closing in around them there. He was glad his family left when they did.

The warning to Columbia probably had to do with fear of them allowing military aid to come in through their country.

Venezuela will come to a head eventually and other than political repercussions not much Russia or China can do to stop it.

The sad thing is that “if” there does come a moment for the US to intervene it will be blocked politicaly at home from almost everyone.
The Socialist Dems who can’t admit another socialist gov fall, to the never Trumpers to Ann Coulter.

The unexpected support might come from J Ramos and Univision. He was pretty put out and outspoken about being detained by Marduro and mainstream media left him out to dry. Fox and Hannity where the ones who brought significant attention to him being detained. So much so Ramos went on Fox to report on it and thank them for speaking up for him.

expat42451
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Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:01 am

Hi Obreid
Good post- I followed a little of the J. Ramos/Univision incident. Not much of a nice country to be in. From talking to friends there, I get the impression that any opposition is split up into such small fragments that it would be tough to find any common cause to get larger groups together, however I may be wrong on this. From this end in Ecuador its tough to know whats going on even with people there. Still no word from Margarita friends about whether anyone has seen the Chinese or not.

Wonder where the carriers and support vessels are, been 3 days since the USNI article. In 3 days I am going to guess they may be close to the Caribbean. The family I know I think may have some relatives across the border in I think Cucuta Colombia. I may ask about anything they may be seeing in the next few days.

Thanks again for the good post. You reminded me of the J Ramos incident, didnt think about that.

Regards

Obreid
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:49 am

The hope is always for Maduro to just flee the country propagated ideally by the Venezuelan military turning on him.
That will be where most of Russian and Chinese efforts will be. Holding the military leadership together with reassurance and bags of cash.

If the military doesn’t abandon him under current conditions they never will. With direct Russian and Chinese support they can ignore the rest of the international community indefinitely.

Given this status quo the only other force to change the government is (armed) insurrection. There will have to be popular domesric uprising to take that course. That is were the US enters after diplomacy and sanctions run their course.

Send them all the weapons they need now (with) the full cooperation of Columbia and Brazil.

Or wait for the unsurprising announcement Venezuela has started their own nuclear program in a year or two.

Nation state nuclear programs are becoming franchise operations that any embattled government can easily acquire it seems.

krzepice1976
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:58 pm

The Cuban regime has served as a primary accomplice to Maduro’s theft of Venezuela’s wealth & resources, and is complicit in Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis. The U.S. is prepared to hold accountable any country or company that facilitates the repression of the Venezuelan people.

https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/statu ... 54464?s=19

krzepice1976
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:58 pm

The legitimate Venezuelan National Assembly called for international support of its decree. The Department of the Treasury has sanctioned companies and vessels facilitating illegal oil transfers from the Maduro regime to Cuba. This is only a first step. https://t.co/ovylOAPPHs

.@POTUS is taking action against a vital source of the Maduro regime’s wealth. Today the U.S. will sanction 34 vessels owned or operated by PDVSA, as well as 2 additional companies that transport Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba. Venezuela’s oil belongs to the Venezuelan people!

https://twitter.com/VP/status/1114248387996540928?s=19

krzepice1976
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Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:00 pm

As @POTUS has said: On Venezuela, all options are on the table. Nicolas Maduro would do well not to test the resolve of the United States of America. Maduro must go!

https://twitter.com/VP/status/1114248717404495872?s=19

krzepice1976
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Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:25 pm

group of finance ministers is working on a $10 billion package of trade finance that could be made available to help Venezuela out of its economic and humanitarian crisis once a new government is put in place, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Saturday.

A group of 20 mostly Western finance ministers that met earlier this week in Washington is "going to be working on trying to put together a consortium of about $10 billion of trade finance that would be available for the new government to spark trade," Mnuchin said in a press conference.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

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