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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:45 pm
by willrod1989
Things in the Carolinas keep deteriorating quickly. Anyone near the coast who hasn't heeded evacuation orders should take all necessary means to protect their lives.
000
WTNT65 KNHC 051655
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...

Multiple observing stations located in and around Charleston Harbor
have reported wind gusts of 75-80 mph (120-129 km/h) within the last
hour.

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 86 mph (138 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:51 pm
by willrod1989
Anyone in New England or the Canadian Maritimes should definitely review their hurricane preparations. Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard. Canadian Hurricane Centre keeping a close eye on Dorian's track as well.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Posted: Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:50 am
by willrod1989
Hurricane Warnings are up for most of Atlantic Canada. Now is the time to prepare for strong Tropical Storm or CAT 1 equivalent force winds across Nova Scotia, New Brunswich, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, and lower Quebec. Plan for winds ranging from 90 to 130+ km/h with waves 4-7 metres. Widespread rainfall between 50-200 mm of rain are also expected with this storm.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Posted: Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:03 pm
by willrod1989
This is the latest update as of 17:44 UTC:
The next intermediate statement will be issued at 6:00 p.m. ADT.
Followed by the full information statement issued at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Heavy rain bands ahead of Hurricane Dorian already affecting the southern maritimes. Dorian will continue to accelerate northeastward toward Nova Scotia, making landfall this evening near Halifax. Severe winds and heavy rain are in store for parts of Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec.

1. Summary of basic information at 03:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 42.8 North 65.6 West.

About: 265 kilometres southwest of Halifax.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: northeast at 47 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 953 millibars.


2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the south shore, central and eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland. Hurricane Watches are in effect for eastern Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, western and northern Nova Scotia, parts of northern and southwestern Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands and parts of Quebec's Lower North Shore.

Hurricane Dorian is rapidly approaching Nova Scotia this afternoon, and is expected to make landfall near Halifax early this evening, then continue tracking east of Prince Edward Island around midnight, and then over the eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters or western Newfoundland by Sunday morning.

Severe winds and torrential rain will impact southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands and the Quebec's Lower North Shore. Large waves are expected for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and for eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, storm surge, combined with large waves and pounding surf, may give flooding for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands, and parts of the Quebec's Lower North Shore.

a. Wind.

Wind gusts up to 120 km/h have already been reported along parts of the Nova Scotia coast this afternoon. Much of Nova Scotia will continue to experience high wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h or higher this afternoon, and towards evening for Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds will reach hurricane force of 120 km/h or more. Behind the storm, winds will reach hurricane force northwesterlies, with wind gusts potentially reaching 150 km/h in some areas. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, causing broken branches and tree falls, resulting in power outages, blocking of roads, and other type of damages.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for Nova Scotia, western Prince Edward Island, most of New Brunswick stretching from the southwest towards the Gaspesie, and parts of the Lower North Shore Quebec.

Very heavy rain has already spread into the region. Rainfall rates in excess of 25 mm per hour have already been observed at several locations, with some stations in southwestern Nova Scotia already reporting over 75 mm by early this afternoon.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm are expected over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands. Maximum amounts are likely over western Nova Scotia where 100 to 200 mm are expected. These amounts and rainfall rates could easily give rise to road washouts and localized flash flooding.

c. Surge/Waves.

Storm surge warnings are in effect for most of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, the north shore of Prince Edward Island, western Cape Breton, the Magdalen Islands, Quebec's Lower Quebec North Shore, and Anticosti Island.

For the south coast of Nova Scotia high waves and storm surge may cause flooding for some low lying coastal areas this afternoon.

For the Gulf of Saint Lawrence localized flooding due to storm surge and high waves are likely during high tide tonight.

There will also be rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Waves of 7 to 10 metres will reach the Southwestern Shore of Nova Scotia during the day and spread to the Eastern Shore tonight. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning with waves nearing 12 metres. Waves of 4 to 7 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution.


3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

An offshore buoy near Georges bank reported a wind gust over 80 knots (150 km/h) earlier this afternoon where Dorian passed just to its north. Several Atlantic coastal stations already near reporting gusts near 65 knots (120 km/h) this afternoon.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for most Atlantic waters, storm warnings are in effect for other waters in the Maritimes. For Newfoundland, hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters, storm force warnings for the southwest and northeast coasts, and the strait of Belle Isle. Gale warnings are in effect for the remaining waters.

As Dorian continues to move into our waters, it will spread hurricane force southeasterlies near and south of its track, with storm to hurricane force northwesterlies developing behind it. Waves of 10 to 15 metres are expected south of the storm track, beginning late today over southwestern waters and approaching the south coast of Newfoundland Sunday morning. As the low continues east Sunday into Monday, waves of 4 to 7 metres will develop over eastern waters, and for the southwestern Grand Banks will build to 5 to 10 metres.

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Posted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:05 am
by willrod1989
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA...
...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move
over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The cyclone
should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern
Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The
post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple
of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by
Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Hart Island, Nova Scotia,
recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
continue over portions of Nova Scotia during the next few
hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the
Hurricane Warning area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also
possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area late
tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Posted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:07 am
by willrod1989
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