Russian General Thread 10-17-2016

Reports on current military activity
User avatar
DEFCONWarningSystem
Director
Director
Posts: 5963
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:26 pm
Contact:

Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:50 pm

pnitro4 wrote:also Russia were offered a 48 hour pause before, they rejected that
I believe it was Russia who offered the 48 hour pause, but the US rejected it because they wanted a week. Russia rejected it because they said a week would allow the rebels time to rest and rearm. A legitimate concern.

Encyclopath
Regular contributor
Posts: 1035
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:26 am

Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:15 pm

Braver911 wrote:
Alertfatigue2983 wrote:Were any members on this site alive during the cold war?
I was in my teens
Good question. Absolutely.

Encyclopath
Regular contributor
Posts: 1035
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:26 am

Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:24 pm

BygmesterFinn wrote:
With this and the ceasefire started today, tensions may very well begin to go in a safe direction and we could hopefully see some progress in Syria.
There's enough alternate interpretations that we shouldn't be too relieved, yet. I would be more glad to hear the news about ceasefires, if it weren't for the large amount of assets that are currently on route to Syria, and not the sort of assets one would use to maintain a cease-fire. The Naval units on their way would, be of more assistance in deterring western intervention should the Assad offensive resume.

As for the election, Tuten must realize that Trump isn't going to win, and probably has for a while. I'm sure he is counting on a period of instability following the election, even if not on the order of violent unrest. It would be enough of a distraction to hobble American military decisions that would need to be made by either a lame duck president, or a newly elected president with anything but a strong mandate.

User avatar
BygmesterFinn
Regular contributor
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:53 am

Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:43 pm

Encyclopath wrote:
BygmesterFinn wrote:
With this and the ceasefire started today, tensions may very well begin to go in a safe direction and we could hopefully see some progress in Syria.
There's enough alternate interpretations that we shouldn't be too relieved, yet. I would be more glad to hear the news about ceasefires, if it weren't for the large amount of assets that are currently on route to Syria, and not the sort of assets one would use to maintain a cease-fire. The Naval units on their way would, be of more assistance in deterring western intervention should the Assad offensive resume.

As for the election, Tuten must realize that Trump isn't going to win, and probably has for a while. I'm sure he is counting on a period of instability following the election, even if not on the order of violent unrest. It would be enough of a distraction to hobble American military decisions that would need to be made by either a lame duck president, or a newly elected president with anything but a strong mandate.
Its not really a ceasefire, its a temporary cessation to let civilians and moderates leave the city. I misspoke. Assad and Russia fully intend to continue their campaign. As to the fleet, it both relieves and saddens me; with the soon to be fall of Aleppo and massively increased deterrent towards Western power, Hillary will be left with no military options come January without all but a guarantee of war with Russia. If Putin had not upped his deterrent as much as he is doing, Clinton's NFZ would be a scary possibility, but as more and more are put in the region, the chances of a NFZ being implement are shrinking. Putin has won, and the US cant do squat about it.

Encyclopath
Regular contributor
Posts: 1035
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:26 am

Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:48 am

Good point. Terminology matters.
Declaring a cessation rather than a ceasefire at this point isnalmost a pointed insult to the international community, and a strong signal of intent.
Looking back to similar situations in the Ukraine conflict, where Russia offered an opportunity for safe withdrawl, I fear he will be equally merciful this week. Russian conduct with respect to honoring this cessation will reveal a lot about Putin's overall intent. By the weekend, I think we can have some certainty about whether or not there will be war.

User avatar
Drumboy44
DWS Staff
DWS Staff
Posts: 3455
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:29 pm
Contact:

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:02 am

Encyclopath wrote:Good point. Terminology matters.
Declaring a cessation rather than a ceasefire at this point isnalmost a pointed insult to the international community, and a strong signal of intent.
Looking back to similar situations in the Ukraine conflict, where Russia offered an opportunity for safe withdrawl, I fear he will be equally merciful this week. Russian conduct with respect to honoring this cessation will reveal a lot about Putin's overall intent. By the weekend, I think we can have some certainty about whether or not there will be war.
And the up side to all this is?
" man fears time, but time fears the pyramids "

Encyclopath
Regular contributor
Posts: 1035
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:26 am

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:11 am

Drumboy44 wrote:
Encyclopath wrote:Good point. Terminology matters.
Declaring a cessation rather than a ceasefire at this point isnalmost a pointed insult to the international community, and a strong signal of intent.
Looking back to similar situations in the Ukraine conflict, where Russia offered an opportunity for safe withdrawl, I fear he will be equally merciful this week. Russian conduct with respect to honoring this cessation will reveal a lot about Putin's overall intent. By the weekend, I think we can have some certainty about whether or not there will be war.
And the up side to all this is?
The answer may turn out to be 'probably not'

User avatar
BygmesterFinn
Regular contributor
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:53 am

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:13 am

Encyclopath wrote:Good point. Terminology matters.
Declaring a cessation rather than a ceasefire at this point isnalmost a pointed insult to the international community, and a strong signal of intent.
Looking back to similar situations in the Ukraine conflict, where Russia offered an opportunity for safe withdrawl, I fear he will be equally merciful this week. Russian conduct with respect to honoring this cessation will reveal a lot about Putin's overall intent. By the weekend, I think we can have some certainty about whether or not there will be war.
Regardless of his intent in Syria, there will not be a war there between us and them, especially with Obama in power. It takes two to tango.

Encyclopath
Regular contributor
Posts: 1035
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:26 am

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:25 am

I don't mean immediately, more like over the next several months.
We'll have a better idea of whether or not the level of tension has peaked, is a better way to phrase it.

Encyclopath
Regular contributor
Posts: 1035
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:26 am

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:44 am

It may be a moot point now anyway:
Aleppo rebels reject withdrawal under Russia’s 8-hour truce
https://twitter.com/rudawenglish/status ... 8375615488

Post Reply