Current Ukrainian Situation: 8/10/16

Reports on current military activity
killjoy27
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:17 am

Alot of this feel very similar to the led up to the Annexation of Crimea following Sochi Olympics.

I would expect something to be done at the tail end of Rio to maybe within a couple days of the Olympic ending.

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TruthandJustice
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:04 am

killjoy27 wrote:Alot of this feel very similar to the led up to the Annexation of Crimea following Sochi Olympics.

I would expect something to be done at the tail end of Rio to maybe within a couple days of the Olympic ending.

The major difference is now the world is expecting something and won't be caught off guard. In my opinion, Russia will likely advance on multiple fronts with the initial drive being a decoy. Russia has to prevent this turning into a bloodbath so expect there to be shock and awe or nothing at all. I think the US continuing to provide Intel up until and during the moment Russia invades is the best we can do for now. Unfortunately, I have to admit we look like hypocrites telling Russia they shouldn't make up excuses to invade when we did just that in lets see pretty much every middle eastern country. I knew this would quickly come back to bite us and it has. Thanks for the kaos GW.

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TruthandJustice
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:19 am

TruthandJustice wrote:
killjoy27 wrote:Alot of this feel very similar to the led up to the Annexation of Crimea following Sochi Olympics.

I would expect something to be done at the tail end of Rio to maybe within a couple days of the Olympic ending.

The major difference is now the world is expecting something and won't be caught off guard. In my opinion, Russia will likely advance on multiple fronts with the initial drive being a decoy. Russia has to prevent this turning into a bloodbath so expect there to be shock and awe or nothing at all. I think the US continuing to provide Intel up until and during the moment Russia invades is the best we can do for now. Unfortunately, I have to admit we look like hypocrites telling Russia they shouldn't make up excuses to invade when we did just that in lets see pretty much every middle eastern country. I knew this would quickly come back to bite us and it has. Thanks for the kaos GW.
The sporadic shelling all across the front line is part of this decoy I have been referring to. They will continue to harass Ukraine to the breaking point.

hrng
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:38 am

Nexus wrote:
GhostMBwy wrote:I do have one additional question for those of with military backgrounds, would a mass incursion by Russian forces (if it happens) be more likely to occur at night or the day?
In a mass invasion I would assume would be during the day. Chances are there would be Ops the night before to add confusion and make it easier for the larger ground invasion. Night ops would consist of capturing/destroying key points, killing commanders and so on.
I have no mil experience, but if it were me I'd use the night before to establish all the required supply lines and lock down travel behind the front line. Get MPs controlling traffic and get some nice secure corridors for supplies and reinforcements. Guessing recon would probably be sent in then too? Though they've likely already got well established intel teams in the border regions.

Ivan
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:35 am

Oswald wrote:My take on how the Russians may go for different goals based on where they are now. The Dnepir river bridges are key. I see the northeast push as the least likely, since the proximity to Kiev might trigger a NATO response (as unlikely as it might be for NATO to grow a pair) via the Budapest Memorandum. But with THAT much Russian ordnance hanging ten on the Northeast border- they're at least keeping that option open.

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Transnistrian forces haven't big potential for offensive. I think there no military answer. I think will be small scale special operations. Maybe cruise and ballistic missiles will use. But i don't believe in full scale armored invasion

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statue1
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 5:45 am

Ivan wrote:
Oswald wrote:My take on how the Russians may go for different goals based on where they are now. The Dnepir river bridges are key. I see the northeast push as the least likely, since the proximity to Kiev might trigger a NATO response (as unlikely as it might be for NATO to grow a pair) via the Budapest Memorandum. But with THAT much Russian ordnance hanging ten on the Northeast border- they're at least keeping that option open.

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Transnistrian forces haven't big potential for offensive. I think there no military answer. I think will be small scale special operations. Maybe cruise and ballistic missiles will use. But i don't believe in full scale armored invasion
While cruise missiles and the like would probably do the job for destroying the Ukrainian military, and taking out crucial command centres, I don't think small scale ops would pacify Putin's desire for a Crimean Land bridge and the buffer zone of many miles needed to ensure they can hold the land bridge. He would need to use all of those forces he has been deploying and mobilising to actually do what he wants to do.

kilo365
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:30 am

Is it possible that Putin will take Ukraine, possibly Romania, Belarus. To get nukes closer to the UK, NATO?
His tick for tack for the AEGIS? if that's the case, this will get fugly quick. imho

kaleygh
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:34 am

kilo365 wrote:Is it possible that Putin will take Ukraine, possibly Romania, Belarus. To get nukes closer to the UK, NATO?
His tick for tack for the AEGIS? if that's the case, this will get fugly quick. imho
Romania is a NATO member. NATO has a number of installations there, i do not think Putin is that stupid, even if he threatened to bomb the country in the past.

hrng
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:23 am

kaleygh wrote:
kilo365 wrote:Is it possible that Putin will take Ukraine, possibly Romania, Belarus. To get nukes closer to the UK, NATO?
His tick for tack for the AEGIS? if that's the case, this will get fugly quick. imho
Romania is a NATO member. NATO has a number of installations there, i do not think Putin is that stupid, even if he threatened to bomb the country in the past.
And Belarus is Russia, so it would make no sense for Russia to "take" it.

Slim313shady
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:39 am

In Bulgaria even our President and prime minister talk about hybrid war agaiinst us.Is it possible anything happend?Past few weeks was tuff and our media always talk for Russia against Bulgaria.But i dont see world media cover this.

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