Current Ukrainian Situation: 8/10/16

Reports on current military activity
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jjjppp11
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Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:07 pm

Last thread was too long...Time for a new one!
"Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam circumspice"

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JohnStone
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Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:12 pm

I'd like to get a better look at military traffic in Crimea's north. Also curious if any traffic is headed towards Mariupol, though I suspect in an open invasion, many attacks will come from the sea.

steve5304
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Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:24 pm

opinion ahead...

It feels like it's about to hit the fan...feels real this time.

The world is paying almost no attention...this coupled with the SCS tensions..it's like people are taking sides behind closed doors.

You could almost make out two hypothetical alliances in the coming war.

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jayfeather31
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Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:39 pm

If we assume war is on the horizon between either Ukraine and Russia, China and Japan/USA or both at the same time, if such a hypothetical war were to occur, when would it be likely to occur? The summer months seem to be popular for wars to start... but that doesn't mean much.
The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one.
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Great, let's round up all the useless cats and hope a tree falls on them.
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sgtjenkins
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Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:39 pm

Crimea parliament says Ukraine "launched undeclared war." This is escalating very quickly. Will Putin go all out?
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/763402637131780097

http://govoritmoskva.ru/news/88781/

Rough translation below-
According to the vice-speaker of Remzi Ilyasov, Russia reserves the right to respond in accordance with national military doctrine.

Earlier today, the FSB announced preventing terrorist attacks in the Crimea, prepared by the Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry intelligence. Attacks planned to organize against the critical elements of the infrastructure and life support of the peninsula. The aim of attackers was to destabilize the socio-political situation in the region during the preparation and conduct of elections.

Ilyasov on behalf of Crimean residents expressed gratitude to all military personnel, especially officers of the FSB, which did not allow saboteurs to disturb the peace and tranquility on the peninsula.

The head of the Crimea Sergey Aksenov, in turn, said that the attempts to destabilize the republic will continue to be suppressed as much as possible firmly.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry refutes reports about saboteurs FSB.
https://twitter.com/PlaneSpots

steve5304
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Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:43 pm

Do you think it is a gliewtz incident false flag op or was Ukraine really up to shennanigans in the Crimea?


There Is some harsh language flying around and troop movements to back up. That is fact. What isn't known at this point is intent...is it just posturing or more sinister...if ukrop forces passed out 7 days of food expecting something in the 48 hour window...that puts conflict sometime tonight or tommorrow. So we won't have long to wait.

I definitely would not put it past Putin that this is simply a show of force to keep Ukraine unstable. We have seen an unprecedented number of snap drills that are designed to intimidate...one in 2014 after Crimea caused so much concern they put everything on alert and sent out a 45 minute long EAM
Last edited by steve5304 on Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

GhostMBwy
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:04 am

jayfeather31 wrote:If we assume war is on the horizon between either Ukraine and Russia, China and Japan/USA or both at the same time, if such a hypothetical war were to occur, when would it be likely to occur? The summer months seem to be popular for wars to start... but that doesn't mean much.
I think it will occur here soon in the Ukraine (don't think China and Japan are there yet as China 's government seems resistant to more belicose calls by military atm). The Ukraine just called for a meeting of the UN security council and Putin, seeing this, put out official statement by FSB and said Minsk 2 is effectively "dead" (which of course it always was.)

I predict a few more "incidents" in the next day or two giving Russia more time to put equipment in, stir propaganda and "justify" action, and then move in BEFORE the UN can weigh in and dispute things. If the UN does weigh in and the Ukrainians are allowed to be open and show they aren't doing anything, then Russia looses it casus belli and we all know how Putin doesn't want to look like the villain.

I could be just dreaming though.

steve5304
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:07 am

Shelling at Donetsk airport of some sort normal tit for tat

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JohnStone
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:10 am

Is there even anything left of that airport? They've been shelling it for months.

GhostMBwy
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Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:10 am

I do have one additional question for those of with military backgrounds, would a mass incursion by Russian forces (if it happens) be more likely to occur at night or the day?

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