India Pakistan summer 2019

Reports on current military activity
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DEFCONWarningSystem
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Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:33 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:45 pm
But the big ticket item is that a majority Muslim population will now be directly controlled by a majority Hindu government where they will have little to no representation. They have lost the ability to make their own laws which they've been able to do since 1949, and their local elected leaders have basically been nullified.
This can certainly give the imputes for Pakistan to intervene militarily. After all, this is the excuse Russia used to invade Ukraine and capture Crimea.

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Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:57 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:00 pm
We cannot underestimate the importance of this development. Pakistan's reaction during the next 48 hours is critical to how this will play out. Three of their four wars have been fought over Kashmir.
This; however...

I don't think Pakistan can do anything. I think they are too weak compared to India to even consider war. I think they're a lot weaker than people realize now that they aren't getting all the US dollars they used to. My guess is, unless they're willing to risk nuclear escalation, they aren't going to do a thing about it but accept it as inevitable.

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Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:57 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:45 pm
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:35 pm
So the talk is to split the Kashmir area into three different provinces or something like that. I'm not terribly up on the politics of that region.
Essentially. But the big ticket item is that a majority Muslim population will now be directly controlled by a majority Hindu government where they will have little to no representation. They have lost the ability to make their own laws which they've been able to do since 1949, and their local elected leaders have basically been nullified. New Delhi is showing an incredible lack of foresight and will probably come to regret the decision.
Situation is more complicated due to article 35A.This article limited (practically cancelled) ownership real estate in Kashmir by persnos whomare outide of Kashmir. The article had impact on education , working for goverment.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... T6W9stFVOp

krzepice1976
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Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:05 pm

CreepyMonkey wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:57 pm
RiffRaff wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:00 pm
We cannot underestimate the importance of this development. Pakistan's reaction during the next 48 hours is critical to how this will play out. Three of their four wars have been fought over Kashmir.
This; however...

I don't think Pakistan can do anything. I think they are too weak compared to India to even consider war. I think they're a lot weaker than people realize now that they aren't getting all the US dollars they used to. My guess is, unless they're willing to risk nuclear escalation, they aren't going to do a thing about it but accept it as inevitable.
First of all Pakistan will react. Is is open question what kind of responde will be selected by Pakistan officials-support for Kashmir organization or military operation.
They have to react due to public .Pakistan is muslin country while India is not..
Change in article 35 will havebhuge impact on ownership in this pafrt of India. Pakistan can ask China

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Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:07 pm

krzepice1976 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:05 pm
Pakistan can ask China
You think China would intervene over Kashmir?

If so, militarily or economically?

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Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:00 pm

krzepice1976 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:05 pm
CreepyMonkey wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:57 pm
RiffRaff wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:00 pm
We cannot underestimate the importance of this development. Pakistan's reaction during the next 48 hours is critical to how this will play out. Three of their four wars have been fought over Kashmir.
This; however...

I don't think Pakistan can do anything. I think they are too weak compared to India to even consider war. I think they're a lot weaker than people realize now that they aren't getting all the US dollars they used to. My guess is, unless they're willing to risk nuclear escalation, they aren't going to do a thing about it but accept it as inevitable.
First of all Pakistan will react. Is is open question what kind of responde will be selected by Pakistan officials-support for Kashmir organization or military operation.
They have to react due to public .Pakistan is muslin country while India is not..
Change in article 35 will havebhuge impact on ownership in this pafrt of India. Pakistan can ask China
Let me amend my statement to clarify; Pakistan will not likely do anything militarily. Likely their reaction will be sanctions, condemnation, rhetoric but no real military movement or action of any significant consequence.

But I've been wrong before.

EyeInTheSky

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:57 pm

Nothing is going to happen beyond the usual bluster and bravado. Perhaps a small temporary show of force to keep each respective country happy that they have "power" but that will be it. Pakistan does not have the military hardware surplus or finances to run an effective campaign of ballistic warfare with India and they certainly will not entertain nuclear over something which does not affect their economy or standing in the world. The hostilities will be sound bites and if you're really lucky some movement of military hardware / troops and a few arial flybys.

Escalation to full scale conflict is not on the agenda as that would have already happened by now. Political rhetoric, a few isolated skirmishes between military and the public, quick show of force and "the end".

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Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:28 am

EyeInTheSky wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:57 pm
Escalation to full scale conflict is not on the agenda as that would have already happened by now.
I don't know. I think Pakistan was in the dark as much as anyone else. Now they know the extent of what India is doing, they can react, whatever that may be.

Not that I think anything will happen. Who knows?

So far, so good for now. But I still think Pakistan will pull a Crimea.

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Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:18 am

“Pakistan Army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their just struggle to the very end,” said General Qamar Javed Bajwa after meeting with top commanders in Rawalpindi. “We are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfil our obligations in this regard.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... UW0ZM?il=0
"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves." - Terminator 2: Judgment Day

krzepice1976
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Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:30 pm

🇮🇳 4th time today an #IndianAirForce fuel tanker is airborne and on station

#india's defence forces have been on alert and maintaining strict #opsec as sightings are brief and headings unknown https://t.co/qvKUQO2SHy

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