DRPK 19 October

Reports on current military activity
ArmyATC
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:31 pm

WARNO ISSUED, SEA OF JAPAN, USN
"U.S. forces in the region around North Korea have been put on heightened alert. After a North Korean missile test in mid-September, a U.S. warship patrolling the Sea of Japan received a warning order, or "WARNO," to be prepared to fire Tomahawk missiles at North Korean targets.

“It’s not unheard of to do that,” a former senior defense official said of the order to prepare the cruise missiles. “But I would say it is a fairly significant indicator that the possibility of using Tomahawks is rising

I would say it is a fairly significant indicator that the possibility of using Tomahawks is rising.”
A WARNO is essentially an instruction to forces to be at the ready if ordered to take action. For Tomahawks, that means prepping the weapon and programming a target; surface ships and submarines in the area are armed with dozens of the cruise missiles.
"



Another WARNO issued by the US. This was done AFTER the last missle test, so this may be a heads up. Anybody got more on this?

/edit/ This WARNO was issued in September, but FP is reporting this as if it were being re-issued. So I am still trying to see if the original WARNO has been modified or initiated with supplemental FRAGO's or OPORD's. Anybody that has something they don't want to post, please send me a message and we can compare research notes. Thanks./edit/

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php ... orth-korea

Green
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:31 pm

From the guy that oversees the most morally bankrupt government agency on the planet.

CreepyMonkey
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:40 pm

Questor213 wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:26 pm
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm
It may be helpful to remember that the DEFCON level does not reflect the possibility of war, but the possibility of nuclear threat against the United States. There is an important distinction to that.

What we're hearing now, as Monarch wisely pointed out, is a lot of talk. But no real action. At least, action indicative of pending conflict. Sure, something can come out of all that, but for the moment, we're just in a "watch and see" mode.
I guess I would ask, what are your definitions of the different levels? It would be legitimate for this site to have it's own definitions however, if you are going off the wikipedia definitions, then they are as follows:

DEFCON 1 COCKED PISTOL Nuclear war is imminent Maximum readiness
DEFCON 2 FAST PACE Next step to nuclear war Armed Forces ready to deploy and engage in less than 6 hours
DEFCON 3 ROUND HOUSE Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes
DEFCON 4 DOUBLE TAKE Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures Above normal readiness
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT Lowest state of readiness Normal readiness

Again, if we are using this set of definitions, which level are we at?

We have additional assets in the region and at least one WARNO has gone out to have Tomahawks ready to launch on NK targets. I would be shocked to discover if air force assets in the region and strategic assets in the homeland are not ready to mobilize within 15 minutes.

Are the totality of the armed forces ready to engage in warfare in the next 6 hours? Almost certainly not.

shrug. It's your choice and I don't have strong feelings one way or the other. And anyways, thank you for running the site - it's great and I read it a lot.
You don’t have to rely on the DEFCON status on this site to change your own personal readiness factor. In fact my group decided to go to DEFCON 3 last night based on many different factors.

Because this site is very much in the public view, it is wise to stay conservative with its DEFCON status. Many who might read this site could easily misinterpret facts and come to the wrong conclusions, even panic.

DEFCONWarningSystem
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:45 pm

Questor213 wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:26 pm
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm
It may be helpful to remember that the DEFCON level does not reflect the possibility of war, but the possibility of nuclear threat against the United States. There is an important distinction to that.

What we're hearing now, as Monarch wisely pointed out, is a lot of talk. But no real action. At least, action indicative of pending conflict. Sure, something can come out of all that, but for the moment, we're just in a "watch and see" mode.
I guess I would ask, what are your definitions of the different levels?
We do have a FAQ for that, but it more or less says what you should do for each level. http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpB ... hp?f=2&t=4

I guess you're asking for something more specific. We don't have a predefined set of rules for each level. It really is a "gut check," when it comes right down to it. We do have some parameters we use to help guide our decisions, but we don't publicize those. We don't want to be put into a position where someone can say "You define Yellow as such and such, so we should be at Yellow." Again, it's more instinct, intuition, and experience which guides what level we are than a hard-defined set of rules.

DEFCONWarningSystem
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:49 pm

ArmyATC wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:31 pm
Another WARNO issued by the US. This was done AFTER the last missle test, so this may be a heads up. Anybody got more on this?

/edit/ This WARNO was issued in September, but FP is reporting this as if it were being re-issued. So I am still trying to see if the original WARNO has been modified or initiated with supplemental FRAGO's or OPORD's. Anybody that has something they don't want to post, please send me a message and we can compare research notes. Thanks./edit/

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php ... orth-korea
My understanding is this is related to the September one. If there is a new or modified order, I am personally unaware of it.

REALHumanRights
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:58 pm

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm
It may be helpful to remember that the DEFCON level does not reflect the possibility of war, but the possibility of nuclear threat against the United States. There is an important distinction to that.
Totally understand, respect, and appreciate this site.

I don't recall a time in recent history when I would see three U.S. news media articles (from left and right) about surviving a nuclear bomb attack in the U.S. There are some fellow citizens in the U.S. media who believe there exists an enhanced possibility of such a nuclear threat that they are writing about preparedness. I think from a preparedness perspective that makes sense, and in my view, that is how a DEFCON position really provides most help to U.S. public. IMO there is an enhanced need for U.S. public to start considering the preparedness defined in the description of levels. With a CIA Director also publicly stating that NK nuclear ICBM capability to reach U.S. is "months away," IMO public preparedness discussion makes sense. Certainly we would all like to believe there will be no hostilities and if there are, to believe that U.S. defenses will protect "97%" of threats. But then there is the Homeland Security imperative (beyond the geopolitical thinking) as to when should U.S. public have some measures of preparedness in place. In the 21st century, I think such preparedness is way behind where it should be, as the public discounted a nuclear threat literally for many, many decades.

--Newsweek: "If North Korea attacks the U.S. with a nuclear bomb, everyone and everything will be destroyed in the target area: - October 16, 2017 - http://www.newsweek.com/tips-surviving- ... ast-686405
-- Washington Examiner: "How to survive a nuclear bomb in DC"- October 16, 2017 - http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/how-t ... le/2637336
-- Associated video - http://studio.ndnmediaservices.com/wash ... stId=18263
-- NBC: Thinking the unthinkable: Don’t rely on these historic fallout shelters in case of a nuclear attack - October 6, 2017 -https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/thinkin ... ttack.html

Questor213
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:00 pm

ArmyATC wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:31 pm
WARNO ISSUED, SEA OF JAPAN, USN
"U.S. forces in the region around North Korea have been put on heightened alert. After a North Korean missile test in mid-September, a U.S. warship patrolling the Sea of Japan received a warning order, or "WARNO," to be prepared to fire Tomahawk missiles at North Korean targets.

“It’s not unheard of to do that,” a former senior defense official said of the order to prepare the cruise missiles. “But I would say it is a fairly significant indicator that the possibility of using Tomahawks is rising

I would say it is a fairly significant indicator that the possibility of using Tomahawks is rising.”
A WARNO is essentially an instruction to forces to be at the ready if ordered to take action. For Tomahawks, that means prepping the weapon and programming a target; surface ships and submarines in the area are armed with dozens of the cruise missiles.
"



Another WARNO issued by the US. This was done AFTER the last missle test, so this may be a heads up. Anybody got more on this?

/edit/ This WARNO was issued in September, but FP is reporting this as if it were being re-issued. So I am still trying to see if the original WARNO has been modified or initiated with supplemental FRAGO's or OPORD's. Anybody that has something they don't want to post, please send me a message and we can compare research notes. Thanks./edit/

http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php ... orth-korea
Only the Sept one is public, AFAIK

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KimPossible
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:06 pm

Questor213 wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:26 pm
And anyways, thank you for running the site - it's great and I read it a lot.
Yes @DWS thank you for providing this very incrediable, valuable, and life saving website!
There is a war on woman! #VoteThemOut

ArmyATC
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:09 pm

Thanks DWS and Questor. That's all I'm getting, too. Since the targets are being updated regularly, I would bet there are some FRAGOs. But nothing to discuss publicly. Between this excercise and the high-profile Chinese Communist Party meeting, things seem to be somewhat peaceful, thank God!

Good to talk with everyone!

REALHumanRights
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:10 pm

[/quote]You don’t have to rely on the DEFCON status on this site to change your own personal readiness factor. In fact my group decided to go to DEFCON 3 last night based on many different factors.[/quote]

Yes, absolutely.
This challenge puts the U.S. public in somewhat new territory. We previously only seriously considered (a) Cold War era or superpower threats, (b) terrorist nuke threats. The problem of a rogue dictator of isolated nation (with inconsistent intelligence) having ICBM and 100-200+ kt nuke bomb threat, and limited guidance control over missile targeting is something different.
If you were to relocate from a high value target area, where would you go? Any missiles that get past GMD would probably fly over Canada, and who knows where they will end up?
In terms of preparedness, our urban area Americans are really used to planning for 10kt level attacks, not a 100-200+ kt nuke from a "rogue nation" and the associated fallout contour.
In terms of HEMP preparedness, other than a handful with Faraday cages, and general supply preparedness for storms, terror, etc., also very little preparedness, and as we know the EMP Commission was disbanded at the end of September.
There are no real "Homeland Security" preparedness leaders out there for U.S. public during this critical time.

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