DRPK 19 October

Reports on current military activity
REALHumanRights
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Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:50 pm

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:21 pm

Shouldn't this report by the CIA push the DEFCON status to Yellow?

Livingston
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:37 pm

To those interested, here is the full Q&A:

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/events/f ... ty-summit/

Starts at 19 minutes. McMaster spoke too, but that was mostly on the Iran deal, but with a few comments on North Korea. I think what he said was posted in a previous thread.

Monarch
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Posts: 29
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:29 pm

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:48 pm

So we go from years, down to months, down to having the capability to do so now, and then back to months.


IMO, this whole thing is becoming


Image

Questor213
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Posts: 152
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:34 pm

Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:51 pm

REALHumanRights wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:21 pm
Shouldn't this report by the CIA push the DEFCON status to Yellow?
Several things should have by now pushed us to 3. But the mods of this site learned the wrong lesson by previously jumping the gun that now they should never go to 3 unless people are already dying on a battlefield.

Once bitten twice shy has been pushed to it's extreme.

Monarch
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:20 pm

Rhetoric is not going to push the DEFCON level up any higher than it is now. People need to keep in mind that we are in the social media age. Much like how athletes or celebrities mouth off to each other via social media, it is now apparently appropriate for leaders of nations to do the same thing. Right now, it is nothing but talk. The actions of both countries are telling a different story.

Until you see 4 or more carriers in the Korean peninsula, multiple fighter wings being deployed, troop call ups here at home, and actual evacuations of citizens and personnel out of South Korea, Japan and likely Guam, nothing is imminent. A few bombers from Andersen, one submarine, and a few carrier groups isn't enough firepower to take out Kim's regime or defenses.

There is no reason to raise the level on this site right now.

Questor213
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Posts: 152
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:27 pm

Monarch wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:20 pm
Rhetoric is not going to push the DEFCON level up any higher than it is now. People need to keep in mind that we are in the social media age. Much like how athletes or celebrities mouth off to each other via social media, it is now apparently appropriate for leaders of nations to do the same thing. Right now, it is nothing but talk. The actions of both countries are telling a different story.

Until you see 4 or more carriers in the Korean peninsula, multiple fighter wings being deployed, troop call ups here at home, and actual evacuations of citizens and personnel out of South Korea, Japan and likely Guam, nothing is imminent. A few bombers from Andersen, one submarine, and a few carrier groups isn't enough firepower to take out Kim's regime or defenses.

No reason to raise the level on this site.
I respect your opinion and don't disagree that you raise valid points.

Waiting until the US has all of it's ducks in a row for an invasion is one approach to raising and lowering the defcon, although that is more of an aggcon - aggressive condition. Under that system the defcon is a measure of, "how long until we invade".

I tend to think of the defcon as a defense condition - how close are we to being in a war? And on that score I feel we are on a knife's edge.

Monarch
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:45 pm

The problem is, the rhetoric has helped/forced nearly everyone to feel as if we have been on the knife's edge of war for the last 7 months. I've been refreshing this site, and a few twitter accounts dozens of times a day for the last 7 months. The rhetoric gives the appearance that war is very imminent, but once you start looking at the actions, a different aspect of this starts to take shape. Now that's not saying it isn't a serious situation or that we won't be going to war soon, because eventually something will have to give.

With that said, the DEFCON level will not be raised until we are very nearly at war, which IMO, means either intelligence of an impending attack from NK, or we are prepared for a preemptive strike ourselves. If we are preparing to attack, there will be more assets needed in the Korean peninsula than what is currently there because I think the Trump Administration understands that any preemptive attack on NK may likely result in retaliatory action from China and Russia, and the US will need to be prepared for that scenario. Not to mention any possible retaliatory actions that Iran may take on Israel as a result of a strike on Iran's greatest ally, North Korea.

DEFCONWarningSystem
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm

It may be helpful to remember that the DEFCON level does not reflect the possibility of war, but the possibility of nuclear threat against the United States. There is an important distinction to that.

What we're hearing now, as Monarch wisely pointed out, is a lot of talk. But no real action. At least, action indicative of pending conflict. Sure, something can come out of all that, but for the moment, we're just in a "watch and see" mode.

DEFCONWarningSystem
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Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:07 pm

Drumboy44 wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:30 pm
Any attempt to strangle #DPRK through #UN sanctions will be regarded as an attempt to “declare war,” he adds.

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/921345138647060480
They always say that. Me drinking the last of the A&W Root Beer this morning was a declaration of war to North Korea.

Questor213
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Posts: 152
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:34 pm

Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:26 pm

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm
It may be helpful to remember that the DEFCON level does not reflect the possibility of war, but the possibility of nuclear threat against the United States. There is an important distinction to that.

What we're hearing now, as Monarch wisely pointed out, is a lot of talk. But no real action. At least, action indicative of pending conflict. Sure, something can come out of all that, but for the moment, we're just in a "watch and see" mode.
I guess I would ask, what are your definitions of the different levels? It would be legitimate for this site to have it's own definitions however, if you are going off the wikipedia definitions, then they are as follows:

DEFCON 1 COCKED PISTOL Nuclear war is imminent Maximum readiness
DEFCON 2 FAST PACE Next step to nuclear war Armed Forces ready to deploy and engage in less than 6 hours
DEFCON 3 ROUND HOUSE Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes
DEFCON 4 DOUBLE TAKE Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures Above normal readiness
DEFCON 5 FADE OUT Lowest state of readiness Normal readiness

Again, if we are using this set of definitions, which level are we at?

We have additional assets in the region and at least one WARNO has gone out to have Tomahawks ready to launch on NK targets. I would be shocked to discover if air force assets in the region and strategic assets in the homeland are not ready to mobilize within 15 minutes.

Are the totality of the armed forces ready to engage in warfare in the next 6 hours? Almost certainly not.

shrug. It's your choice and I don't have strong feelings one way or the other. And anyways, thank you for running the site - it's great and I read it a lot.

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