Princeton nuclear war simulation

Thoughts, suggestions, and advice on what to do if the unthinkable happens.
krzepice1976
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Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:16 am

Please find link to simulation.


https://youtu.be/k2aGm_oHKh8

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RiffRaff
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Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:05 pm

krzepice1976 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:16 am
Please find link to simulation.


https://youtu.be/k2aGm_oHKh8
91.5 million casualties between Europe, Russia, and the US???? That's a 93% survival ratio, given current population of Europe, Russia, and the US.

That seems low, especially for an all-out exchange. Anyone disagree with me on that?
"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves." - Terminator 2: Judgment Day

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DEFCONWarningSystem
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Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:19 pm

idk. Maybe when they are talking about immediate casualties.

I do question their theory that 5-10 nuclear warheads would be used on each city. That seems like overkill.

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RiffRaff
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Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:48 pm

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:19 pm
idk. Maybe when they are talking about immediate casualties.

I do question their theory that 5-10 nuclear warheads would be used on each city. That seems like overkill.
Yeah. This strikes me as more of a 1980s-1990s nuclear war scenario than anything 21st century. Under what conditions would NATO be pushing into Russian territory so far and so successfully that they resort to a tactical nuke to stop it?
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DEFCONWarningSystem
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Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:44 pm

RiffRaff wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:48 pm
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:19 pm
idk. Maybe when they are talking about immediate casualties.

I do question their theory that 5-10 nuclear warheads would be used on each city. That seems like overkill.
Yeah. This strikes me as more of a 1980s-1990s nuclear war scenario than anything 21st century. Under what conditions would NATO be pushing into Russian territory so far and so successfully that they resort to a tactical nuke to stop it?
I don't think it would require a push into Russian territory to evoke a nuclear response. The fear of such is enough. Remember, the Russians are hardwired into fearing invasion.

They also could make the mistake of thinking that a nuclear strike would frighten off NATO, so an attack on their territory isn't necessarily a per-requisite. I'd bring up Crimea, but Russia thinks that is their territory. But certainly I don't put it past Russia to fire off a nuke for some other reason than territorial defense. Just to be clear, I don't put it past anyone, so I am not disparaging Russia here.

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Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:07 pm

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:44 pm
RiffRaff wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:48 pm
DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:19 pm
idk. Maybe when they are talking about immediate casualties.

I do question their theory that 5-10 nuclear warheads would be used on each city. That seems like overkill.
Yeah. This strikes me as more of a 1980s-1990s nuclear war scenario than anything 21st century. Under what conditions would NATO be pushing into Russian territory so far and so successfully that they resort to a tactical nuke to stop it?
I don't think it would require a push into Russian territory to evoke a nuclear response. The fear of such is enough. Remember, the Russians are hardwired into fearing invasion.

They also could make the mistake of thinking that a nuclear strike would frighten off NATO, so an attack on their territory isn't necessarily a per-requisite. I'd bring up Crimea, but Russia thinks that is their territory. But certainly I don't put it past Russia to fire off a nuke for some other reason than territorial defense. Just to be clear, I don't put it past anyone, so I am not disparaging Russia here.
I saw that they collaborated with Alex Wellerstein, the creator of NukeMap. Therefore, I assume that's immediate casualties.

What people don't really seem to comprehend though are the massive casualties which will result from long after the attacks. I'm not even taking into account radiation, or "nuclear winter" (which the jury isn't out on anyway). But the total collapse of our infrastructure which modern society depends on. What's going to happen when the supermarket shelves go empty? Or when your local pharmacy runs out of insulin or antibiotics? How about just a simple compound fracture? Good luck getting that looked at when doctors are preoccupied with treating casualties from the blast.

Electricity will most likely be a thing of the past, at least for quite a while. People will die from food poisonong due to spoiled food, and waterborne diseases will run rampant. Don't be surprised if cholera makes a comeback. With people overworked and malnourished, the annual flu season will run rampant, and poor sanitary conditions will make it worse. Good luck finding antibiotics to treat that pneumonia!

Without the continued supply of oil and modern fertilizers, it will be a struggle to even try to grow enough food to sustain those who haven't been killed off in the waves of disease and radiation sickness.

And even this isn't taking into account the chaos and carnage that will happen when society collapses because of these pressures. To be sure, the central government and military MIGHT be able to restore order eventually, but in the interim, pure chaos.

I can at least be comfortable knowing that if I were to survive that horror, that I have valuable skills to help with the rebuilding of society. In the aftermath of World War III, people like doctors, farmers, engineers, etc will be invaluable.

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