What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

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Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by DEFCONWarningSystem » Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:54 am

Yingyang wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:27 pm
Higher now considering POTUS has released American emergency fuel supply access. 🤔 something is in motion.
That's just an attempt to keep prices stable in light of the attack on SA oil processing.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by Yingyang » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:27 pm

Higher now considering POTUS has released American emergency fuel supply access. 🤔 something is in motion.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by Obreid » Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:45 am

I think that one big thing has changed and it’s changed across the globe.

Because we no longer live in a bilateral world where no intermediate sized nation will do anything significant without the approval of Russia or the Americans MAD is virtually dead.

Yes we all fear Armageddon or nuclear winter. Most of us look at this from a Cold War perspective. That in the end nuclear conflict is a zero sum game.
A significant nuclear exchange between two or more large powers will not necessarily be viewed in Tehran or North Korea as a bad thing. This view might not be accurate assessment of the risk but could still be held none the less. Iran might actually have as a policy to forment conflict with best case scenario of a significant nuke exchange between one or more dominate powers. In their mind this swings the door wide open to allow them to do as they will in the Mideast.

So personally I don’t believe the criteria of defcon threat levels are relavent today.

War could spring upon the world not like Pearl Harbor but more like a bullet from a revolver in Bosnia. The incident will take everyone virtually by suprise and it will not seem significant enough to warrant escalation to all hands on deck at least initially.

This also raises a really unpleasant and unpopular question. Because of the increase of nuclear nations and resulting instability of a non-bipolar world are nations forced to re-evaluate the strategic relevance of limited tactical strike.
Even if 8 out of 10 nations continue to swear off first strike the 2 that don’t force the rest to ask the question.
Even if it’s not the topic of main stream news and elder statesmen national leaders would be negligent in their duties to not be having this discussion.

So I go to sleep at a 3 most nights right now but always expect to wake up to go to work in the morning.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by willrod1989 » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:06 pm

DEFCONWarningSystem wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:48 am
Elderstatesman wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:16 am
Right now,considering the goings on with Iran ,I am posting Defcon 4. Not alarmed about much,but keeping a careful eye on things.
I'm personally sitting at a 5. Iran is nothing at the moment.

Officially, we're still at 4 because we want to give it more time to see where it might go.
I agree. While there is a moderate chance for this to develop into open hostilities, I sincerely doubt that nuclear weapons will be used. Especially since Russia seems very wary of getting involved. However, the major wild card in this crisis is Israel. If it weren't for that, we'd probably be sitting at DEFCON 5 right now.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by Yingyang » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:58 am

I'm at 4 even though it feels like 3 at a global outlook. :roll:

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by DEFCONWarningSystem » Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:48 am

Elderstatesman wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:16 am
Right now,considering the goings on with Iran ,I am posting Defcon 4. Not alarmed about much,but keeping a careful eye on things.
I'm personally sitting at a 5. Iran is nothing at the moment.

Officially, we're still at 4 because we want to give it more time to see where it might go.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by Elderstatesman » Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:16 am

Right now,considering the goings on with Iran ,I am posting Defcon 4. Not alarmed about much,but keeping a careful eye on things.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by willrod1989 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:25 am

RiffRaff wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:13 pm
Bingo wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:17 am
RiffRaff wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:43 pm
The concept of eliminating DEFCON 5 and stating that force readiness will maintain DEFCON 4 for the indeterminate, indefinite future is that DEFCON 4 then loses all meaning, as it has now become the new de facto DEFCON 5. You can't maintain an elevated alert status for long due to alert fatigue. You either need to raise it or lower it, but you can't just leave it in one spot indefinitely. The human brain adapts and the whole point of being at DEFCON 4 vanishes.

It will be even worse for civilians. If we maintain DEFCON 4 indefinitely, it might be technically correct, but people will adapt, including the staff, and it becomes pointless.
What do you plan to do with the information of increased or decreased threat?
We may have to start living with the fact that DEFCON 5 carries with it a slightly increased threat level in 21st century geopolitics than it did in the 20th century. And really, when you consider the fact that the US has always been 30 minutes away from nuclear annihilation for the past six or seven decades, most of which was spent at DEFCON 5 or DEFCON 4, it puts things a little more in perspective.
We went through most of the Cold War hanging out at DEFCON 5, and yet the threat of nuclear annihilation was very real, especially in the 1980s. I think the problem is the fact that people are just starting to wake up to the fact that the Cold War never truly ended- we only had a two-decade period of détente. As long as nuclear weapons continue to exist, we will always be only 30 minutes away from destruction. A false alarm leading to an overreaction will send the missiles flying, even during periods of relative peace. Just look at the 1995 Norwegian rocket incident.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by RiffRaff » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:13 pm

Bingo wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:17 am
RiffRaff wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:43 pm
The concept of eliminating DEFCON 5 and stating that force readiness will maintain DEFCON 4 for the indeterminate, indefinite future is that DEFCON 4 then loses all meaning, as it has now become the new de facto DEFCON 5. You can't maintain an elevated alert status for long due to alert fatigue. You either need to raise it or lower it, but you can't just leave it in one spot indefinitely. The human brain adapts and the whole point of being at DEFCON 4 vanishes.

It will be even worse for civilians. If we maintain DEFCON 4 indefinitely, it might be technically correct, but people will adapt, including the staff, and it becomes pointless.
What do you plan to do with the information of increased or decreased threat?
We may have to start living with the fact that DEFCON 5 carries with it a slightly increased threat level in 21st century geopolitics than it did in the 20th century. And really, when you consider the fact that the US has always been 30 minutes away from nuclear annihilation for the past six or seven decades, most of which was spent at DEFCON 5 or DEFCON 4, it puts things a little more in perspective.

Re: What is your personal "DEFCON Level"?

by Bingo » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:17 am

RiffRaff wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:43 pm
The concept of eliminating DEFCON 5 and stating that force readiness will maintain DEFCON 4 for the indeterminate, indefinite future is that DEFCON 4 then loses all meaning, as it has now become the new de facto DEFCON 5. You can't maintain an elevated alert status for long due to alert fatigue. You either need to raise it or lower it, but you can't just leave it in one spot indefinitely. The human brain adapts and the whole point of being at DEFCON 4 vanishes.

It will be even worse for civilians. If we maintain DEFCON 4 indefinitely, it might be technically correct, but people will adapt, including the staff, and it becomes pointless.
Exactly. Very much to my next point. What do you plan to do with the information of increased or decreased threat?

In my mind, preparing my family for what might be next is paramount. We have checklists which change with the DEFCON levels. Everyone has the main checklist, which outlines how society and importantly your neighborhood might change. Knowing these things as a family helps prevent panic, mistakes and accidents.

Each individual has specific personal tasks.
Example of low skill task for kids, empty old water storage containers and refill. When DEFCON changes, tasks ( that you decide match your readiness plan) are practiced by each individual. Practice together, within earshot. Be alert to help correct misconceptions and promote productive thoughts and actions. Teach, Coach... Pray.

Just one small example of how to productively utilize the excellent information of our level of nuclear conflict.

Please KEEP all of the 5 units of the DEFCON yardstick.
Realize that as this global war heats up, that now ruler, may shrink to a micrometer as the threat of war looms closer.

As always, just my opinion. DWS - OUTSTANDING work!

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